NPPS Leadership Team

[Brett Viren <bv AT bnl.gov>]

FYI, here's what I sent to EDG, including Carlene.

-Brett.

Brett Viren <bv AT bnl.gov> writes:

> Hi,
>
> FYI, starting Monday I'll work from home for a while.
>
>
> I'd like to share a bit of info on the modeling of this viral infection
> and how it may guide our own individual strategies for action today and
> over the coming months.
>
> You may have seen this video from "3Blue1Brown" already.
>
>   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
>
> I found it useful in getting a "feel" for the exponential phase of the
> viral spread which we are currently experiencing.  Some of the
> animations depict individuals traveling randomly between
> sub-populations.  I found this helpful to relate the infection model to
> my own actions and environment.
>
> When considering the exponential phase of the model, plugging in some
> real numbers helps me to grasp what we are heading into.  The US
> exponential parameter is fluctuating day by day and based on its values
> for other countries who are ahead of us on the curve, I expect it to
> continue to do so.  The last two days it has been ~1.3 (lower than
> previous days, but again, lots of fluctuation).  The video uses ~1.15.
> Japan was seeing 1.05-1.10 during their initial period.  S.Korea, which
> had a huge amount of testing and reporting, was seeing as high as
> 1.3-1.4 and was able to turn that around quickly to 1.02 today.  To
> understand the power (no pun intended) of this parameter, given the
> current number of infections in the US known as of yesterday (1561), an
> exponent of 1.15 gives 78k infected in a month from now, the current
> parameter value of 1.3 gives 2.4M.
>
> As the WHO stated and as China and S.Korea demonstrated clearly, this
> infection can be controlled.  Minimizing the mixing among our population
> is one important action we can take to help reduce our infection
> exponential parameter.
>
>
> Chins up and hands washed!
>
> -Brett.
>
> [1] These daily PDFs have the numbers:
>
>   
> https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
>
> Wikipedians are compiling them into more convenient forms:
>
>   
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#Epidemiology
>
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