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star-fcv-l - Re: [Star-fcv-l] Discussion of systematic uncertainty calculation - FCV PWG meeting on 06/December/2023 Wed. 9:30 AM EDT

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Subject: STAR Flow, Chirality and Vorticity PWG

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  • From: dshen <dshen AT rcf.rhic.bnl.gov>
  • To: "Wang, Fuqiang" <fqwang AT purdue.edu>
  • Cc: "STAR Flow, Chirality and Vorticity PWG" <star-fcv-l AT lists.bnl.gov>
  • Subject: Re: [Star-fcv-l] Discussion of systematic uncertainty calculation - FCV PWG meeting on 06/December/2023 Wed. 9:30 AM EDT
  • Date: Thu, 07 Dec 2023 23:50:37 +0800

Hi Fuqiang,

One sigma is |def.-sys.|/sqrt(12), and it shows as +- 1 sigma for the case of (def. - |def.-sys.|, def. + |def.-sys.|).
The critical point is that it doesn't require a maximum variation, it just requires that the variation could cover the true value. The confidence level is based on experience and common sense, there is no mathematical way to quantify it - it is not statistics.

Best,
Diyu


On 2023-12-07 23:28, Wang, Fuqiang wrote:
Hi Diyu,

What you wrote is just another way to say that the physics quantity in
question is within the min and max of (def. - |def.-sys.|, def. +
|def.-sys.|), respectively. In such a case, one would quote a sigma of
2*|def.-sys.|/sqrt(12) = |def.-sys.|/sqrt(3). The essential point is
to demonstrate to reasonable confidence that this is indeed the
maximum syst. variation in the result.

Best regards,
Fuqiang

On Dec 7, 2023, at 6:32 AM, dshen via Star-fcv-l <star-fcv-l AT lists.bnl.gov> wrote:

---- External Email: Use caution with attachments, links, or sharing data ----


Hi Fuqiang, Zhiwan and all,

It was a inspiring discussion on the systematic uncertainty calculations
yesterday, it pushes me to think.
I tend to agree with Zhiwan and what the blind-analysis did, i.e. use
denominator of 1/sqrt(12).
The argument was that one shouldn't divide the variation by 1/sqrt(12)
because the variation isn't proved to be the maximum - minimum, I think
there is a misunderstanding of the reason behind it.
It isn't based on the assumption that the variation is maximum -
minimum, the underlying assumption is that the true value falls within
"default cut" +- "variation".
Let's take an example, say, the default cut is DCA<2, and the systematic
cut is DCA<1.
The assumption is that the non-biased value is in the interval of (def.
- |def.-sys.|, def. + |def.-sys.|), and it can be any value in that
interval with equal probability (uniform distribution) assuming we don't
have any pre-knowledge to the best position. That's the reason of why
people assign |def.-sys.|/sqrt(12) as 1 sigma and use two-side band.
It hasn't to be the maximum - minimum, although it isn't incorrect
technically to use larger uncertainty, say, use Dca<0.1 to Dca<100. But
I think the principal is to provide the best estimate instead of the
most conservative value.
What variation can be considered as reasonable? I think it is based on
experience and common sense to a specific physics topic. For CME study,
like what Zhiwan did, it is reasonable to assume the non-biased value
falls with in DCA<2 +- |DCA<2 - DCA<1|, for example.

That's my two cents.

Best,
Diyu



On 2023-12-06 05:10, Zhiwan Xu via Star-fcv-l wrote:
Dear Conveners,
I would like to update the paper proposal on the CME search in STAR
BES-II.
Please kindly add me to the schedule.

The paper proposal webpage:

https://drupal.star.bnl.gov/STAR/blog/zhiwanxu/Paper-Proposal-Search-Chiral-Magnetic-Effect-RHIC-Beam-Energy-Scan-II
The slides:

https://drupal.star.bnl.gov/STAR/system/files/paper_proposal_CME_BESII_v2.pdf

Best,
Zhiwan

------------------------------------
Zhiwan Xu,
Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA
zhiwanxu AT physics.ucla.edu

----- Original Message -----
From: "subhash via Star-fcv-l" <star-fcv-l AT lists.bnl.gov>
To: "STAR Flow, Chirality and Vorticity PWG" <star-fcv-l AT lists.bnl.gov>
Cc: "subhash" <subhash AT rcf.rhic.bnl.gov>
Sent: Sunday, December 3, 2023 11:21:34 PM
Subject: [Star-fcv-l] FCV PWG meeting on 06/December/2023 Wed. 9:30 AM
EDT

Dear All,

We shall have our weekly FCV PWG meeting this Wednesday (06/Dec/2023)
at
9:30 AM EDT. If you would like to present please let us know. Please
try
posting your slides by Tuesday. The agenda will be collected at:
https://drupal.star.bnl.gov/STAR/blog/jjiastar/bulkcorr

Zoom details are copied below.

Thanks and regards,
Prithwish, Zhenyu and Subhash


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