U.S. ATLAS HL-LHC Upgrade Level 2 and Deputies-NSF only Management Mailing List

[George Redlinger <redlinger AT bnl.gov>]

Hi All,

I had a look at their risk analysis.  In general they come to roughly similar conclusions as we did, once they adjust for the differences in base costs, and my impression is that they were generally happy with our results. I was certainly not aware of any attempt from their side at any sort of "reconciliation" of the risk analysis prior to this report. So there's probably nothing more we need to say here.

But they do take quite a different view on the contributions from uncertainty versus risk.  I suppose we don't need to address this now at the fact-checking stage but we may need to prepare a story for later?

Two points in particular:
- They think that an upper range on the cost uncertainty of > 50% reflects "a conceptual design maturity level" and suggest that this is not appropriate for a project "approaching final design completion". They think this points to "over-conservatism". We have many items that have an upper range > 50% (namely anything with maturity score > 1.25).
- For task duration uncertainty, they applied uniformly -10% to +15% uncertainty.  That's significantly more optimistic than what we're typically assigning.  (And I don't know what they're doing about correlations, probably ignoring them, decreasing the variance even further.)

Basically they're taking the position that the contingency is driven almost entirely by risk, which is not what we do. 

The fact that we get roughly similar conclusions might reflect the fact that, even in our approach, the contribution from risk is significant.

                         - George

On 1/11/20 6:21 PM, Gustaaf Brooijmans wrote:

Hello all,

Here's a first draft set of comments and questions for the ICE team.  We need to send this on Monday.

Best,

Gustaaf

_______________________________________________
Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l mailing list
Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l AT lists.bnl.gov
https://lists.bnl.gov/mailman/listinfo/usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l