U.S. ATLAS HL-LHC Upgrade Level 2 and Deputies-NSF only Management Mailing List

["Evans, Harold G." <hgevans AT indiana.edu>]

Thanks Gustaaf,

Sounds good. It will be interesting to see what we find as everyone fills out your spreadsheet.

Cheers  -  Hal

On Fri, 2021-06-11 at 14:08 +0200, Gustaaf Brooijmans wrote:

> Hi Hal,
>
> $10k is the order of magnitude of the uncertainty I would expect in this
> process.  In any case, we cannot do what you call "top down" accounting.
>   It makes it impossible to tell if we're cooking the books.  And if
> there's one thing we've learned working with NSF over the past few
> years, it's that top down won't work for them.
>
> In any case, everybody should fill the spreadsheets so we are ready to
> answer questions at the DR.  After the DR we can go over each of the
> sheets in detail with each L2 system to make sure we understand all the
> numbers.
>
> Best,
>
> Gustaaf
>
>
> On 6/11/21 1:42 PM, Evans, Harold G. wrote:
> > Hi Gustaaf,
> >
> > I think that one of the main difficulties here comes from those cases
> > where we know that variances are due solely to COVID. (The L2s should
> > speak up if there are other issues). In these cases, it's very rare that
> > the estimated COVID impact from the numbers entered in Amy's accruals
> > spreadsheet match up with the actual variance. Differences of 10s of k$
> > are easily possible, which could lead reviewers to believe that there
> > are non-COVID effects when these don't exist.
> >
> > We need to come up with a coherent way to explain these differences.
> > Perhaps this is as simple as stating that the accuracy of our estimation
> > method is only ~x% of the actual variance (where x = 10-20%?). But if
> > you or others can think of a better explanation, that would be great.
> >
> > In any case, doing the exercise of understanding quantitatively what the
> > differences actually are, e.g. by using your spreadsheet, is a valuable
> > piece of information, which we'll need to have for the EVMS review.
> >
> > Cheers  -  Hal
> >
> > On Fri, 2021-06-11 at 09:08 +0200, Gustaaf Brooijmans wrote:
> > > This message was sent from a non-IU address. Please exercise caution when clicking links or opening attachments from external sources.
> > > -------
> > >
> > > Hi,
> > >
> > >
> > > > 1. Presenting BCP and Actuals tables in the L2 talks
> > > > A very interesting cross-check on our BCP strategy is to compare costs
> > > > for BCP-1033 (excluding escalation) with the COVID-actuals we observed
> > > > in the period 01-Nov-20 - 30-Apr-21. If our BCPs are accurate, these two
> > > > numbers should agree reasonably well. I have compiled these comparisons
> > > > at L2 in the attached table. As you can see, the NSF totals agree within
> > > > 6%. However, individual L2 systems have much larger deviations.
> > > > It might be useful for Gustaaf to show the rolled-up comparison in his
> > > > talk. However, given the spread in L2 results, I'd suggest that we *do
> > > > not* show the actuals tables in the L2 talks, but rather show only
> > > > BCP-1033 and BCP-1038 diff's for Direct, Fringe, Overhead, Escalation.
> > > > Let me know what the rest of you think.
> > >
> > > Thanks for this.
> > >
> > >
> > > > 2. Harmonizing statements in variance reports with numbers in covid
> > > > BCPs/Actuals
> > > > We discussed at length the recent example of inconsistencies between
> > > > reported covid actuals and statements in variance reports. The
> > > > conclusion that we reached is that these inconsistencies are inevitable
> > > > because of the way we report covid-related actuals. The problem is that
> > > > the COVID-related fraction for each month is entered in the accrual
> > > > sheet before the actual cost variance (CV = ACWP-BCWP) is known. Since
> > > > the COVID fraction is a rough estimate of the fraction of that month's
> > > > ACWP that is caused by COVID, it is very unlikely that it will turn out
> > > > to be exactly equal to the CV that's actually calculated once the
> > > > statusing is finished. Thus the numbers that we have will almost never
> > > > agree with our explanations in the variance reports.
> > > > This problem could be fixed if instead of reporting the COVID fraction
> > > > as a fraction of the ACWP for that month, the anticipated fraction of
> > > > the eventual CV were reported instead. Thus we would enter, for example,
> > > > that 100% of the actual CV (whatever it turns out to be numerically) is
> > > > due to COVID. Then it would be easier for the variance report
> > > > explanations to reflect the actual variances. However, this method also
> > > > has flaws in that it's entirely top-down.
> > > > In any case, we should bring up these two options to the NSF and ask
> > > > which they prefer. Neither is perfect but both have some attractive
> > > > features.
> > >
> > > Yowza!  Please do not ever mention this idea any further!  Basically
> > > this says "we'll look at the numbers and then we'll write a story that
> > > fits."
> > >
> > > For my example from LAr, the explanation is presumably that something
> > > else cost less.  There is for example the missing engineer at UT Austin,
> > > a change in personnel at Columbia.  The point is that the story has to
> > > be complete.  Not to invent one!
> > >
> > > Best,
> > >
> > > Gustaaf
> > >
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> > > >
> > --
> >
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >   Hal Evans
> > hgevans AT indiana.edu
> >
> >  <mailto:
> > hgevans AT indiana.edu
> >
> > >
> > http://hgevans.pages.iu.edu/
> >
> >  <
> > http://hgevans.pages.iu.edu/
> >
> > >
> >   Tel: (812)856-3828                    Fax: (812)855-5533
> >   253 Swain Hall West               Indiana University
> >   727 E. Third St.                Bloomington, IN 47405
> > ----------------------

-- 

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 Hal Evans                        hgevans AT indiana.edu

           http://hgevans.pages.iu.edu/

 Tel: (812)856-3828                    Fax: (812)855-5533

 253 Swain Hall West               Indiana University

 727 E. Third St.                Bloomington, IN 47405

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