U.S. ATLAS HL-LHC Upgrade Level 2 and Deputies-NSF only Management Mailing List

[Gustaaf Brooijmans <gusbroo AT nevis.columbia.edu>]

Hello all,

Thanks for the dependencies sheets, these are very useful in developing 
a strategy to estimate our covid-induced exposure to external delays.

What we will do is perform a "covid external delays" risk simulation to 
make this estimate.  To that end, please fill the simplified risk sheet 
attached by *July 23*.  Since many of the risks are similar in the 
different systems, here's some guidance on what to enter, as we don't 
want identical risks to have very different ranges in different systems:

-ASIC fabrication: 2-8 months
-ASIC packaging: 1-4 months
-PCB fab: 1-4 months
-PCB assembly: 2-6 months
-COTS parts: 2-12 mo (the issue here is that what matters is the *last* 
part you get)

Of course, these numbers can be changed if you have some specific 
information that gives you reason to do so.  (Eg COTS parts delays may 
be shorter if there is flexibility in the exact COTS parts to be used.)

For the cost range, estimate the efficiency loss cost due to the delay. 
For example, if a PCB fab/assembly is delayed, an engineer may be 
reduced to 50% efficiency while waiting as he/she is limited to doing 
test prep work but cannot really start the testing itself.  So the 
corresponding cost estimate is 50% of the engineer's fully loaded salary 
for the given delay period.

For the task assignment, if there are eg multiple production batches, 
please attach to the *first* batch.  We will assume that the difficulty 
is getting into the queue, but once we're started there are no further 
delays (either because the production line is now going to run the full 
thing, or covid issues go away).

Please set the probability to "moderate" for all risks for now.

Don't overthink this - clearly everything is very uncertain and this is 
just a stab to at least get some estimate.  Since you already have the 
dependencies sheet, this should be quick.

Thanks,

Gustaaf

Attachment: Risk-Register_add_v01.xlsx
Description: application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet