U.S. ATLAS HL-LHC Upgrade Level 2 and Deputies-NSF only Management Mailing List

[John Parsons <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu>]

Hi Gustaaf,

	We are using all the "standard" impacts proposed across the project for 
Supply Chain, eg. up to 4 months delay for PCB fab.  The LAr issue being 
revealed here, with the implication we could need an extra ~9 months 
more than we have before the needed-at-CERN dates, is maybe a reflection 
of the fact these are (by now) too conservative?  Do we really want to 
show this at DR??  It seems to me it could become the "dominant issue" 
of the entire review?  And how do we reply when asked "what happens if 
the MC is right and you deliver LAr boards 9 months too late"??

	Given we have not seen this problem before yesterday, we don't 
currently have anything prepared to address it.  (as requested, I do not 
even have the MC results in my L2 talk)  By April, I can see quite a few 
improvements, since the ADC preprod will be done and the lpGBT 
production should be done.  Also, we should have received the preprod. 
PA/S (from DOE scope) by then.   So we could "retire" those.  All that 
would help, but who knows whether it would be enough to get us to 90%CL 
float.  We could consider changing some of the assumptions.  For 
example, based on recent experience, I don't think a potential 4-month 
delay for PCB fab is a serious possibility anymore.  I would be 
comfortable reducing it to 2 months max.

        So, bottom line, here are some questions:

- for next week, you are going to show these float results in your 
plenary talk?  And if so, what are we going to say?  Just say this is a 
current snapshot, discuss the points above, and argue it will be 
"better" by April?  That still leaves open for discussion whether it 
will be "good enough", and the answer is that today we don't know.  This 
seems problematic to me.

- Or, given that all these changes will happen by April, do we choose to 
NOT show the MC schedule result next week?  Once the DR is over, we 
could work with Chris to see where we expect things to stand at the time 
of the rebaseline review?

                John
        
On 2/24/23 5:34 PM, Gustaaf Brooijmans wrote:
> Hi John,
>
> Yes, but it turns out this is all due to supply chain.  In the working 
> summary sheet you’ll see I made some small annotations.  Without supply chain 
> the 438/461 becomes 251/288, so ~90% CL.  We didn’t have supply chain risks 
> at FDR, or at the summer 2021 annula review.
>
> Best,
>
> Gustaaf
>
> > On Feb 24, 2023, at 4:48 PM, John Parsons <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu> wrote:
> >
> >
> > Hi Gustaaf,
> >
> >         I am surprised that @ 90%CL LAr seems to need about 200 "extra" days (almost a 
> > year) beyond the float we have.  What is driving that?  We have certainly made a lot of progress 
> > since FDR, and were not in such bad shape back then.  We also have more base float now than we 
> > did at FDR, and yet we are "under water"?
> >
> >                 John
> >
> > On 2/24/23 4:39 PM, Gustaaf Brooijmans wrote:
> > > Hello all,
> > > We think we’ve worked the kinks out of all the numbers.  In the attached you 
> > > will find a for presentation tab, as well as a working tab with a bit more 
> > > info on floats, and all the detailed info.  Let us know if you see something 
> > > weird.  The for presentation tab calculates % contingency on the cost-to-go, 
> > > which gives a better idea of where we are.
> > > Best,
> > > Chris and Gustaaf
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l mailing list
> > > Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l AT lists.bnl.gov
> > > https://lists.bnl.gov/mailman/listinfo/usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l
> >
> > --
> > ______________________________________________________________________
> >
> > John Parsons
> > Nevis Labs,             Email: parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu
> > Columbia University     Phone: (914) 591-2820
> > P.O. Box 137            Fax: (914) 591-8120
> > Irvington, NY 10533     WWW: 
> > https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nevis.columbia.edu/*parsons/__;fg!!P4SdNyxKAPE!AlUFuZVQtXDlYGfQYUuZ0WSkGwQkUBt7tFnJo2VcQujyFtpL0b-2L_pixHxePFTrHBvjxktBXn8jEesrqHstN_ozcEsLE9Yc1M7ayUud2JO982F-xzlG0w$
> >       
> >
> > ______________________________________________________________________

--
______________________________________________________________________

John Parsons
Nevis Labs,             Email: parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu
 Columbia University    Phone: (914) 591-2820
P.O. Box 137            Fax: (914) 591-8120
Irvington, NY 10533     WWW: 
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nevis.columbia.edu/*parsons/__;fg!!P4SdNyxKAPE!AlUFuZVQtXDlYGfQYUuZ0WSkGwQkUBt7tFnJo2VcQujyFtpL0b-2L_pixHxePFTrHBvjxktBXn8jEesrqHstN_ozcEsLE9Yc1M7ayUud2JO982F-xzlG0w$
      

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