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Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary
- From: Gustaaf Brooijmans <gusbroo AT nevis.columbia.edu>
- To: John Parsons <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu>, "Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l AT lists.bnl.gov" <Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l AT lists.bnl.gov>
- Subject: Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary
- Date: Thu, 5 Aug 2021 11:24:51 +0200
Hi John,
I don't really want to get into extensive speculations about COVID, but I note that a) university labs did *not* go into lockdown during the Fall 2020/Winter 2021 surge (without vaccines), and b) the delta variant appears to be essentially harmless to healthy, vaccinated individuals ("breakthrough" severe cases are apparently almost all people with compromised immune systems). That said, there will be new variants.
So, keeping this in mind:
p. 3 - "We have decent control now over operating our labs"; consider adding "and hope that the ongoing surge does not lead to further restrictions"
Well the line above says "the future remains highly uncertain" and the line explicitly says "now" so I think that message is already there.
p. 26 - "While access to our labs is increasingly reliable, and vaccination makes another wave in Fall unlikely, ..." - we are already in the midst of another wave, worse (in many states) that in the past. AConsider change to "and vaccination hopefully makes another wave of lab shutdowns in Fall unlikely..."
Good point, changed to
"and vaccination makes lab shutdowns in Fall unlikely,"
p. 31 - "rising lab efficiency"; consider adding "which hopefully continues despite ongoing Delta-variant surge"
It's a comment on the plot shown, not on its future behavior, so left as-is.
p. 33 - "high university vaccination rates mean this will now hopefully remain"; consider adding "despite challenges of current surge in cases"
The sentence already says "hopefully" and the current surge is not leading to a reduction in lab access. National labs have reintroduced masking in cases where they had dropped it, but that appears to be it. Also, if Europe is any indication, things will start flattening soon.
p. 36 - "We believe new lockdowns are unlikely," ; consider changing to "hopefully unlikely, despite ongoing surge in cases"
Again, the ongoing surge seems unlikely to have an impact. I also think we now know enough that lab lockdowns are unlikely - we did not lock down in the Fall/Winter, when vaccines were not available.
p. 37 - add bullet that current surge is a concern, and we hope it does not lead to further disruptions
I disagree that the current surge is a concern for universities, since all data indicates vaccinated people are only at risk if their immune system is compromised. However, I do agree that the future is very uncertain, and that's said in multiple places in the slides already.
Best,
Gustaaf
On 8/4/21 11:07 AM, Gustaaf Brooijmans wrote:
Hi,
On the no covid summary sheet the float table has base floats both with and without the COVID BCPs. I would suggest to show both.
Best,
Gustaaf
On 8/4/21 4:20 PM, John Parsons wrote:
What about the float numbers? Do we show both with/without COVID? For LAr, we have lost close to a year in float due to COVID. If I show only the "no COVID" float, it will appear very misleading??
John
On 8/4/21 7:47 AM, Gustaaf Brooijmans wrote:
Hello all,
Attached is an updated contingency simulation summary sheet. Note that the file now has two sheets: one where the base numbers include the covid BCPs, and one where they don't. Based on the feedback from the director's review, I think we should show the numbers *without* the covid BCPs by default, and maybe have the others in back-up.
I also attach the sheet with all the gory details, for your own perusal.
Best,
Gustaaf
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Gustaaf Brooijmans - Columbia University
@Columbia: (212) 854 4527; Nevis virtual phone: (914) 591 2804
Als sie mich holten,
gab es keinen mehr, der protestieren konnte.
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Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary
, (continued)
-
Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary,
John Parsons, 08/04/2021
-
Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary,
John Parsons, 08/04/2021
- Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary, Michael Tuts, 08/04/2021
-
Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] [External] Re: Updated contingency simulation summary,
Evans, Harold G., 08/04/2021
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Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] [External] Re: Updated contingency simulation summary,
Thomas Schwarz, 08/04/2021
- Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] [External] Re: Updated contingency simulation summary, John Parsons, 08/04/2021
- Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] [External] Re: Updated contingency simulation summary, Michael Tuts, 08/04/2021
- Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] [External] Re: Updated contingency simulation summary, David W Miller, 08/04/2021
- Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] [External] Re: Updated contingency simulation summary, Mark Oreglia, 08/04/2021
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Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] [External] Re: Updated contingency simulation summary,
Thomas Schwarz, 08/04/2021
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Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary,
John Parsons, 08/04/2021
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Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary,
John Parsons, 08/04/2021
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Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary,
John Parsons, 08/04/2021
- Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-l2deputymgmt-nsf-l] Updated contingency simulation summary, Gustaaf Brooijmans, 08/05/2021
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