U.S. ATLAS HL-LHC Upgrade LAr Level 2 and Level 3 Managers Mailing List

[John Parsons <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu>]

Hi all,

        Just got back to NYC from a productive LAr week!
	As Hong explained, we need to finalize SOON the two RRs (ie. the 
"regular" one and the "supply chain" one), so that the MC can be run in 
advance of freezing everything for the NSF rebaseline review.
	I went over both RRs on the flight, and make some (significant) 
proposed changes.  I attach the new version, where changes are shaded in 
yellow.  Please take a look at your parts of both asap and let me know 
any comments.  This was, of course, largely motivated by the recent 
realization that the very conservative values we put in the Supply Chain 
RR back when it was created are causing a float problem for the NSF 
scope.  While those very conservative assumptions were sensible back 
then, when almost nothing in industry was working well and it was very 
hard to make any sensible predictions, clearly things have improved a 
lot by now.  For example, we have seen no custom ASIC delays, and in 
fact received the PA/S and ADC preprod wafers earlier than scheduled. 
We are finding no significant delays in PCB fab either.  There are still 
some delays for COTS components, but we can mitigate those by submitting 
the production orders early, using the "priming" scheme put in place by 
ATLAS.  Given all these very encouraging signs, I propose significant 
changes to the Supply Chain RR.  In addition, I propose also some 
adjustments to the main RR.

	Let me know asap if you propose any changes to what I have put in the 
attached versions.  We need to get these to Chris by early next week at 
the latest, so prompt attention would be greatly appreciated!

	While writing, let me also say that next week is Spring Break at 
Columbia and I will be away on vacation Sunday-Friday.  So unfortunately 
we will not be able to meet next Friday at our usual time.  However, I 
will keep an eye on my email, so let me know of any things to discuss.

        Thanks,
                John

On 3/10/23 11:51 AM, John Parsons wrote:
> Just landed at Newark. I spent time on the flight working on the RR and 
> will send new version for checking later this afternoon
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> > On Mar 10, 2023, at 10:36 AM, Ma, Hong <hma AT bnl.gov> wrote:
> >
> > 
> >
> >                 As John is traveling back, we are not meeting today.
> >
> >                 There is a urgent request by PO to update the supply 
> > chain risks, which was discussed when we were preparing for the DR.
> >
> >                 Chris wants to run the MC next week.
> >
> >                 Please take a look at the latest risk registry,
> >
> > https://atlas-hllhc.docdb.bnl.gov/cgi-bin/public/ShowDocument?docid=196 
> > <https://atlas-hllhc.docdb.bnl.gov/cgi-bin/public/ShowDocument?docid=196>
> >
> > and propose changes.
> >
> >                 The simplest is probably to drop the probability from 
> > 63% to a much lower level.
> >
> > Please also note Gustaaf’s suggestion to increase the FW complexity 
> > risk cost.  I am not sure if I understand the logic, that adding 
> > resources will increase the cost when there is actually no new scope.
> >
> > Best,
> >
> >                 Hong.
> >
> > *From: *Gustaaf Brooijmans <gusbroo AT nevis.columbia.edu>
> > *Date: *Friday, March 10, 2023 at 9:32 AM
> > *To: *Ma, Hong <hma AT bnl.gov>
> > *Cc: *Parsons, John <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu>, Meyer, Chris 
> > <cjmey AT iu.edu>
> > *Subject: *Re: supply chain risks?
> >
> > Hi Hong,
> >
> > Those recommendation were made in  summer 2021 because we had no good 
> > basis at that time for individual estimates.  As you point out, we do 
> > now, so you should feel free to update the numbers.
> >
> > BTW, looking at BCP 1058, the FW complexity risk maxed out at $150k, 
> > and we will now have added ~$1M in FW effort.  I would suggest to 
> > revise the upper value on that upward, as I think we are likely to 
> > have to add even more FW effort if we can find it.
> >
> > Best,
> >
> > Gustaaf
> >
> >
> >
> >     On Mar 10, 2023, at 3:03 PM, Ma, Hong <hma AT bnl.gov
> >     <mailto:hma AT bnl.gov>> wrote:
> >
> >     Hi Gustaaf,
> >
> >                     I had an exchange with John after yesterday’s 2pm
> >     meeting.    John is traveling today back to the US.
> >
> >                     We will not be able to provide the updated risks
> >     by Monday noon, as Chris requested at the meeting, but we will try
> >     to get it sometime next week.
> >
> >                     We will remove some of the risks (PA/Shaper
> >     preproduction fabrication, for example), but there are still many
> >     left with very high probabilities (63%), based on the
> >     recommendation we had when the risks were first entered.
> >
> >                     Is there a new recommendation, or should we just
> >     use our own judgement to update it?     The recent experience with
> >     the vendors is not too bad, so some adjustment is warranted.
> >
> >                     Best,
> >
> >                     Hong.
> >
> >     *From:*Gustaaf Brooijmans <gusbroo AT nevis.columbia.edu
> >     <mailto:gusbroo AT nevis.columbia.edu>>
> >     *Date:*Friday, March 10, 2023 at 7:25 AM
> >     *To:*Parsons, John <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu
> >     <mailto:parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu>>, Ma, Hong <hma AT bnl.gov
> >     <mailto:hma AT bnl.gov>>
> >     *Cc:*Meyer, Chris <cjmey AT iu.edu <mailto:cjmey AT iu.edu>>
> >     *Subject:*supply chain risks?
> >
> >
> >     Hi John, Hong,
> >
> >     I think we’ll need your revised supply chain risks sometime next
> >     week.  Is this possible?
> >
> >     Thx
> >
> >     Gustaaf
> >
> > _______________________________________________
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> > Usatlas-hllhc-lartl2l3-l AT lists.bnl.gov
> > https://lists.bnl.gov/mailman/listinfo/usatlas-hllhc-lartl2l3-l

--
______________________________________________________________________

John Parsons
Nevis Labs,             Email: parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu
 Columbia University    Phone: (914) 591-2820
P.O. Box 137            Fax: (914) 591-8120
Irvington, NY 10533     WWW: 
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nevis.columbia.edu/*parsons/__;fg!!P4SdNyxKAPE!CQNFPmdp4ryR1Wb_9lzndBPRZ5b8_45nRVlmC5T4wBS-jOYpHyZYsn8NhmYj79lfbgD-NWV8KKvE-cUdmo0D1MmbbYg-oFCyOwA5wTBZKVTtmg$
      

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Attachment: Risk-Register_v76-2022-02-nsf-dr-JPmods.xlsx
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Attachment: Risk-Register_Supply-Chain_v8-2022-02-nsf-dr-JPmods.xlsx
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