U.S. ATLAS HL-LHC Upgrade LAr Level 2 and Level 3 Managers Mailing List

[John Parsons <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu>]

Hi all,

	Any more feedback on the modified RRs?  I need to get them to Chris 
asap.  I made proposed mods to all L3s, so I need everyone to check 
(both NSF and DOE).

        Thanks,
                John

On 3/11/23 6:57 PM, John Parsons wrote:
> Hi Hong,
>
>      Good point!  I will change that one back to the original 3-6 months.
>      BTW, during the steering mtg last week I asked Nicolas about the 
> progress on the French robotic test system (since they did not make any 
> presentation during LAr week).  His reply was basically "progress is 
> being made, but unfortunately not at the rate we hoped".  He said they 
> would hopefully be ready to start some initial testing with the system 
> in "about 2 months".  It sounded more like a hope than a plan.  When I 
> asked whether the plan is to then to build a second system to send to 
> BNL, or just tell BNL the "recipe" for building their own, he said this 
> had not been discussed yet.  I came away even more pessimistic than 
> before, and with the feeling that it will be months (probably at least 
> 4, more likely more) before you could be operating such a system at BNL. 
>   I did not get a chance to talk with Gustaaf after the meeting, but I 
> would expect he was also less than convinced.  If you get a chance to 
> raise the issue with the PO this week, hopefully they would be ready to 
> move ahead with the feasibility study.
>      Regards,
>          John
>
> On 3/11/23 2:52 PM, Ma, Hong wrote:
> > Hi John,
> >
> > The changes are all very reasonable except we may want to hold off the 
> > change for PA/Shaper’s external dependency as we are still proposing 
> > to PO that we need to reduce that risk by looking for alternative 
> > robotic test.
> >
> >
> > Best,
> >
> > Hong.
> > ________________________________
> > From: John Parsons <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu>
> > Sent: Friday, March 10, 2023 1:54 PM
> > To: Ma, Hong <hma AT bnl.gov>
> > Cc: usatlas-hllhc-lartl2l3-l AT lists.bnl.gov 
> > <usatlas-hllhc-lartl2l3-l AT lists.bnl.gov>
> > Subject: Re: [Usatlas-hllhc-lartl2l3-l] FW: supply chain risks?
> >
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> >          Just got back to NYC from a productive LAr week!
> >          As Hong explained, we need to finalize SOON the two RRs (ie. the
> > "regular" one and the "supply chain" one), so that the MC can be run in
> > advance of freezing everything for the NSF rebaseline review.
> >          I went over both RRs on the flight, and make some (significant)
> > proposed changes.  I attach the new version, where changes are shaded in
> > yellow.  Please take a look at your parts of both asap and let me know
> > any comments.  This was, of course, largely motivated by the recent
> > realization that the very conservative values we put in the Supply Chain
> > RR back when it was created are causing a float problem for the NSF
> > scope.  While those very conservative assumptions were sensible back
> > then, when almost nothing in industry was working well and it was very
> > hard to make any sensible predictions, clearly things have improved a
> > lot by now.  For example, we have seen no custom ASIC delays, and in
> > fact received the PA/S and ADC preprod wafers earlier than scheduled.
> > We are finding no significant delays in PCB fab either.  There are still
> > some delays for COTS components, but we can mitigate those by submitting
> > the production orders early, using the "priming" scheme put in place by
> > ATLAS.  Given all these very encouraging signs, I propose significant
> > changes to the Supply Chain RR.  In addition, I propose also some
> > adjustments to the main RR.
> >
> >          Let me know asap if you propose any changes to what I have 
> > put in the
> > attached versions.  We need to get these to Chris by early next week at
> > the latest, so prompt attention would be greatly appreciated!
> >
> >          While writing, let me also say that next week is Spring Break at
> > Columbia and I will be away on vacation Sunday-Friday.  So unfortunately
> > we will not be able to meet next Friday at our usual time.  However, I
> > will keep an eye on my email, so let me know of any things to discuss.
> >
> >          Thanks,
> >                  John
> >
> > On 3/10/23 11:51 AM, John Parsons wrote:
> > > Just landed at Newark. I spent time on the flight working on the RR and
> > > will send new version for checking later this afternoon
> > >
> > > Sent from my iPhone
> > >
> > > > On Mar 10, 2023, at 10:36 AM, Ma, Hong <hma AT bnl.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > 
> > > >
> > > >                  As John is traveling back, we are not meeting today.
> > > >
> > > >                  There is a urgent request by PO to update the supply
> > > > chain risks, which was discussed when we were preparing for the DR.
> > > >
> > > >                  Chris wants to run the MC next week.
> > > >
> > > >                  Please take a look at the latest risk registry,
> > > >
> > > > https://atlas-hllhc.docdb.bnl.gov/cgi-bin/public/ShowDocument?docid=196 
> > > > <https://atlas-hllhc.docdb.bnl.gov/cgi-bin/public/ShowDocument?docid=196>
> > > >
> > > > and propose changes.
> > > >
> > > >                  The simplest is probably to drop the probability from
> > > > 63% to a much lower level.
> > > >
> > > > Please also note Gustaaf’s suggestion to increase the FW complexity
> > > > risk cost.  I am not sure if I understand the logic, that adding
> > > > resources will increase the cost when there is actually no new scope.
> > > >
> > > > Best,
> > > >
> > > >                  Hong.
> > > >
> > > > *From: *Gustaaf Brooijmans <gusbroo AT nevis.columbia.edu>
> > > > *Date: *Friday, March 10, 2023 at 9:32 AM
> > > > *To: *Ma, Hong <hma AT bnl.gov>
> > > > *Cc: *Parsons, John <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu>, Meyer, Chris
> > > > <cjmey AT iu.edu>
> > > > *Subject: *Re: supply chain risks?
> > > >
> > > > Hi Hong,
> > > >
> > > > Those recommendation were made in  summer 2021 because we had no good
> > > > basis at that time for individual estimates.  As you point out, we do
> > > > now, so you should feel free to update the numbers.
> > > >
> > > > BTW, looking at BCP 1058, the FW complexity risk maxed out at $150k,
> > > > and we will now have added ~$1M in FW effort.  I would suggest to
> > > > revise the upper value on that upward, as I think we are likely to
> > > > have to add even more FW effort if we can find it.
> > > >
> > > > Best,
> > > >
> > > > Gustaaf
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >      On Mar 10, 2023, at 3:03 PM, Ma, Hong <hma AT bnl.gov
> > > >      <mailto:hma AT bnl.gov>> wrote:
> > > >
> > > >      Hi Gustaaf,
> > > >
> > > >                      I had an exchange with John after yesterday’s 2pm
> > > >      meeting.    John is traveling today back to the US.
> > > >
> > > >                      We will not be able to provide the updated risks
> > > >      by Monday noon, as Chris requested at the meeting, but we will try
> > > >      to get it sometime next week.
> > > >
> > > >                      We will remove some of the risks (PA/Shaper
> > > >      preproduction fabrication, for example), but there are still many
> > > >      left with very high probabilities (63%), based on the
> > > >      recommendation we had when the risks were first entered.
> > > >
> > > >                      Is there a new recommendation, or should we just
> > > >      use our own judgement to update it?     The recent experience with
> > > >      the vendors is not too bad, so some adjustment is warranted.
> > > >
> > > >                      Best,
> > > >
> > > >                      Hong.
> > > >
> > > >      *From:*Gustaaf Brooijmans <gusbroo AT nevis.columbia.edu
> > > >      <mailto:gusbroo AT nevis.columbia.edu>>
> > > >      *Date:*Friday, March 10, 2023 at 7:25 AM
> > > >      *To:*Parsons, John <parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu
> > > >      <mailto:parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu>>, Ma, Hong <hma AT bnl.gov
> > > >      <mailto:hma AT bnl.gov>>
> > > >      *Cc:*Meyer, Chris <cjmey AT iu.edu <mailto:cjmey AT iu.edu>>
> > > >      *Subject:*supply chain risks?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >      Hi John, Hong,
> > > >
> > > >      I think we’ll need your revised supply chain risks sometime next
> > > >      week.  Is this possible?
> > > >
> > > >      Thx
> > > >
> > > >      Gustaaf
> > > >
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Usatlas-hllhc-lartl2l3-l mailing list
> > > > Usatlas-hllhc-lartl2l3-l AT lists.bnl.gov
> > > > https://lists.bnl.gov/mailman/listinfo/usatlas-hllhc-lartl2l3-l
> >
> > --
> > ______________________________________________________________________
> >
> > John Parsons
> > Nevis Labs,              Email: parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu
> >    Columbia University   Phone: (914) 591-2820
> > P.O. Box 137            Fax: (914) 591-8120
> > Irvington, NY 10533     WWW: 
> > https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nevis.columbia.edu/*parsons/__;fg!!P4SdNyxKAPE!B3TfNP6jTbYtvLDnsxsP559An5DDZw-RpPJyrkmPfbpprG8azL05DKYQGWM12xrh__-wh-2v2KgtciM_vVx0Ew$
> >
> > ______________________________________________________________________

--
______________________________________________________________________

John Parsons
Nevis Labs,             Email: parsons AT nevis.columbia.edu
 Columbia University    Phone: (914) 591-2820
P.O. Box 137            Fax: (914) 591-8120
Irvington, NY 10533     WWW: 
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nevis.columbia.edu/*parsons/__;fg!!P4SdNyxKAPE!GmUuAuFR5J2BYK0YCO0YAkjP9yr2w9g_ac7MbqSNAbIy6MLB-ZCKsg2oq6a3V1reaY-Vi7i9cu074n85v5PInFJatFxIhzl75M4rJRADxuzqqg$
      

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